增值税税率降低和加计抵减政策的经济效应评估——基于动态可计算一般均衡模型的研究
《财经研究》 2021年47卷第1期 页码：4 - 17 online：2020年12月30日
增值税税率降低和加计抵减政策的经济效应评估——基于动态可计算一般均衡模型的研究
Economic Effect Evaluation on the VAT Rate Reduction and Additional Deduction Policy：Research Based on the Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model
作者（中）：胡海生1, 王克强2 *, 刘红梅3
作者（英）：Hu Haisheng1, Wang Keqiang2 *, Liu Hongmei3
作者单位：1.上海理工大学 管理学院，上海 200093 2.上海财经大学 公共经济与管理学院，上海 200433 3.上海师范大学 商学院，上海 200234
摘要：文章在2017年中国投入产出表的基础上，编制了社会核算矩阵，构建含有增值税抵扣机制的动态可计算一般均衡模型，测度了2018年以来增值税改革政策的经济效应。研究发现，作为税率式优惠政策，增值税税率降低能够产生良好的整体减税效应，降低了多数行业的增值税税负；但由于金融业、现代服务业和生活服务业的增值税税率没有下降，其他行业税率下降导致这三个行业的进项税额减少，增值税税负有所上升。作为税额式优惠政策，增值税加计抵减具有非常良好的定向减税效果，在一定程度上对冲了生产、生活性服务业的税负上升。增值税税率降低能够改善税收的扭曲，提高经济运行效率，促进各行业的增加值增长，而加计抵减政策则略微抑制了产出增长。动态来看，随着时间的推移，增值税税率降低政策的经济增长效应在持续扩大，加计抵减政策对经济的抑制效应在逐渐减弱。两类降低税负的政策都提高了企业利润和居民收入水平，政府的企业所得税和个人所得税收入增长，但受增值税收入下降影响，政府总体税收收入出现了一定幅度的下滑。
关键词：增值税税率降低; 加计抵减; 经济效应; 动态可计算一般均衡模型
Summary: The VAT reduction policy is an important part of China’s large-scale tax reduction and fee reduction policy since 2018, which mainly includes two sub-policies: tax rate reduction（tax rate-type preferential policy）and additional deduction（tax amount-type preferential policy）. Quantitative measurement of the tax reduction and economic effect of the two policies will help to provide suggestions for the subsequent reform of China’s VAT system, and fill the gap in quantitative research on the impact of additional deduction policy.Based on China’s input-output table, this paper compiles a social accounting matrix（SAM）, builds a dynamic computable general equilibrium model（DCGE）with a VAT deduction mechanism, and measures the economic effect of VAT rate reduction policy. The study finds that: （1）The reduction of VAT rate as a tax rate-type preferential policy can produce a good overall tax reduction effect, and the VAT burden of most industries has dropped significantly. As a tax amount-type preferential policy, the additional deduction policy has a significant effect of targeted tax reduction. To a certain extent, it has hedged the increase in the tax burden of the production and living service industries. The continuity of the tax reduction effect of the two policies is better.（2）The reduction of VAT rate can reduce the effect of taxation distortion, improve the efficiency of economic operation, and promote the growth of added value of various industries. The tax amount-type preferential policy has little impact on the enterprise’s factor allocation decisions, and has not significantly promoted output growth. From a dynamic point of view, the economic growth effect of the reduction of VAT rate continues to expand.（3）Both tax reduction policies have increased corporate profits and residents’ income. The government’s corporate income tax revenue and personal income tax revenue have increased, but due to the decline in VAT revenue, total tax revenue has declined to a certain extent.The tax rate-type preferential policy can effectively improve the efficiency of resource allocation and promote the growth of added value in various industries. The effect of tax rate reduction policy is obviously better than that of additional deduction policy. Follow-up policy reforms should continue to focus on tax rate reduction, but attention should be paid to the balanced decline of tax burdens in various industries. As the additional deduction policy will expire at the end of 2021, it can be replaced by a tax rate reduction or tax rate merger policy.
Key words: VAT rate reduction; additional deduction; economic effect; DCGE
DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20201015.103
收稿日期：2020-7-27
基金项目：国家社会科学基金项目（17BGL158）；上海市哲学社会科学一般规划项目（2020BJB005）
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